Tag
Uncertainty
5 related notes
Logic and Probability: Deduction, Uncertainty, and EvidenceLogic constrains what follows from premises; probability represents uncertainty and evidential support. This essay separates truth, validity, credence, conditional probability, Bayes, causation, and AI generation.↗
Expected Value: Probability, Risk, and DecisionExpected value is a probability-weighted mean, not a prediction of the next outcome. This essay explains its mathematics, uses, limits, relation to risk, and role in decision theory.↗
Expectation: Belief, Hope, Norms, and ActionExpectation can be a forecast, a hope, a social standard, or a belief about what action can achieve. This essay separates those meanings and connects them to intention, decision, and feedback.↗
The Human-AI Action Loop: Interpretation, Coordination, and FeedbackPeople express partial intentions, AI systems construct revisable task models, and action plus feedback lets both sides correct goals, plans, and evidence.↗
User Intent in AI: Inference Under UncertaintyWhat AI systems mean by user intent, how prompts support competing interpretations, and why confirmation improves action without revealing a private mental fact.↗