Tag
Probability
5 related notes
Logic and Probability: Deduction, Uncertainty, and EvidenceLogic constrains what follows from premises; probability represents uncertainty and evidential support. This essay separates truth, validity, credence, conditional probability, Bayes, causation, and AI generation.↗
Expected Value: Probability, Risk, and DecisionExpected value is a probability-weighted mean, not a prediction of the next outcome. This essay explains its mathematics, uses, limits, relation to risk, and role in decision theory.↗
Decision-Making: Judgment, Choice, and CommitmentDecision-making is not a moment of selection or a guarantee of good outcomes. It turns uncertain possibilities, evidence, and values into a revisable commitment to act.↗
Causation: Difference-Making, Mechanisms, and ReasonsA causal claim says more than one event followed or predicted another. It connects difference-making, intervention, counterfactual dependence, and mechanism while separating causes from evidence, reasons, and purposes.↗
Probability and Bayes: Uncertainty, Evidence, and Rational UpdatingThe mathematics of probability is precise, but its meaning is contested. Bayes' rule shows how conditional probabilities relate without turning uncertainty into truth.↗